The Summer of 2025

The summer of 2025 in America will be one of historical intensity.

The reasons why are:

- Tariffs

- Inflation

- Whatever DOGE has done

- Job loss

- Ongoing demonstrations everywhere in the country

- The war in Ukraine

- MAGA members of Congress visit their districts

- The latest war in the Middle East

- Consumer Confidence continues its rapidly downward trend

- A Recession

- Collapsing support of Trump by the MAGA party

Tariffs

My recent research is that major retailers have some four to six weeks of inventory now in early May. That means through most of June. By July 4^th I expect to see endless news stories about two things: empty shelves in all kinds of stores and a resultant inflation due to demand far outpacing available supply. When it comes to grocery stores and pharmacies it will get real quite quickly.

The visuals will be stark. Online as well, as most online retailers will be putting the cost of tariffs as part of the product pricing. The reactions will be first disbelief [this is America, land of plenty], then there will be anger. This anger will mostly be directed at Trump and the Trump administration because by July 4^th, Trump won’t be able to blame it on Biden.

Inflation

This physical scarcity from the tariffs will obviously trigger inflation. In addition, the complexity of global trade will result in many market sectors having delayed lack of product. We are talking cars and major appliances to name two areas. Anything with steel or aluminum in it, absolutely.

These two concerns – tariffs and inflation – are two of the things Trump campaigned on. He said he would implement strong tariffs and that he would lower the cost of food at the grocery store.

In the post-election analysis, it was clear that more people thought that Trump would manage the economy better that Biden. This part of Trump’s brand – economic capability- will be completely gone by summer. Remember, when Trump was inaugurated the general inflation rate was 2.5% and the Fed was contemplating lowering the prime rate. With inflation going up the Fed will not lower rates.

As we can all remember, prior to Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. economy was “the envy of the world” under Biden. Trump, during the campaign and now post-inauguration continues to say that Biden’s economy was a “disaster.” I am not sure who else believes that other that Trump.

What I am envisioning for the Summer of 2025 is an economy that will be called a disaster by some if not many.

Whatever DOGE has done

This is the big unknown as Americans do not know what Musk, his DOGE-boys and his chainsaw have done to such things as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, all major, respected, honored and needed social safety net programs. We see some of the early results when DOGE killed USAID, laid-off people responsible for overseeing our nuclear arsenal, and essentially depopulated the staffs of the U.S. National Parks. Whoops!

All the demographic analysis I have read post-election, suggests that the some 35% of the voting public is “Trump’s base” and that the vast majority of them are not college-educated and have a higher percentage of Medicaid use than the average population. So by the Summer of 2025 there may be a good number of “Trump’s base” as the media likes to call it, who are starting to question their undying loyalty to Trump.

It is not just them. Depending on the month, Social Security is a fair percentage of my income, as it is with many people I know in their late 60’s or 70’s. There are some 72 million people who receive Social Security benefits. As of now, there are some 67 million people on Medicare and 80 million on Medicaid. I assume that there is some duplication in those numbers, so let’s settle on 130 million U.S. citizens partaking of one of these medical programs.

IF Musk and his DOGE-boys took a chainsaw to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, then I just have to think that sometime during the Summer of 2025 there will be missed payments. Think about how people might react to any of these:

-not getting their monthly SS check

-being told that Medicare is backed up and one will have to pay the full amount of healthcare upfront and that she might have to wait for a few months for reimbursement. The other option is that the healthcare providers will have to go without compensation for months, which will trigger economic losses and job loss as well.

-losing health coverage for their family

So this is the big unknown, what Musk and his young DOGE-boys – with Trump’s direction – have done to the most popular programs of the U.S. government. If there are to be failures to deliver with social programs, the summer will be hot.

Job Loss

Well, there has already been significant job loss from the most competent public service sector in history. How many thousands/tens of thousands/hundreds of thousands of cascading unemployment will these chainsaw cuts ultimately trigger?

In the haste to brag of cutting the budget of the federal government expenses seems that the Trump administration has not fully thought about the cascading consequences of these cuts. In many small towns and small cities in America the federal government – SSA, Medicare and Medicaid offices and many other slashed agencies – is the largest employer. That means that there are entire service sectors that support the federal workers that will suffer massive job loss. Then the local or state tax bases will decline, which will increase the need for federal funding to keep these communities going.

In 2024 the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1%, one of the lowest numbers in history. I have no idea what it will be on July 4^th 2025, except that it will be higher.

Ongoing demonstrations everywhere in the country

The demonstrations that have been occurring since March will continue. They are everywhere, both spontaneous and well-planned, populated by all demographics, and angry. It is the first time, perhaps since the late 60s and 70s that there have been widespread demonstrations that spring up spontaneously: the Power of the People. These will explode if any of the above happens this summer.

This may become the single biggest force of the summer. Moral Mondays has already shown regularity and arrests.

Seems like what lit the match for those demonstrating was DOGE/Musk/USAID and then a big one: due process.

I have already attended two demonstrations in April and the demographics were all inclusive. Given where I live there seemed to be a lot of grey-haired boomers.

Power to the People will loom large from now on in 2025.

War in Ukraine

Trump lost the country when he said that Ukraine started the war, and that Zelenskyy was the war criminal. Trump was going to solve it in “24 hours”. It is now way past 100 days and the war continues. If there is no resolution of this war by July 4^th, then MAGA politicians will start to peal away from Trump. [Most of them were children when there was “mutually assured destruction” so the fear of Russia will creep back in].

MAGA members of Congress visit their districts

At some time, they will have to travel back to their districts. Districts that have already had SRO crowds for AOC and Bernie and soon many more Democratic politicians will be going to “red” districts.

When this happens, it will be a critical development as the margins in the House and Senate could well change this summer as we all know that the number one thing for elected officials is to get re-elected. The confluence of all mentioned in this column will make them scared to stay with Trump; at least the number needed to change the numbers in the House.

The latest war in the Middle East

I say this because I truly believe the cliché: Middle East Peace is an Oxymoron.

At least in the last 5,000 years. Occasional cessation of violence but never Peace with a capital P.

Yes the war in Gaza

Maybe Yemen?

Iran?

Lebanon?

Syria?

The complexity of the region is too much for Trump and his woefully inadequate foreign affairs team and it will all be clear by the summer.

Consumer Confidence continues its rapidly downward trend

Consumer confidence is sharply down since Trump was inaugurated.

To quote from a financial advisory service [in this case VettaFi]:

“The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® plunged to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. The index fell to 86.0 this month from March's upwardly revised 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2008, and the steepest one month decline since August 2021. This month's reading was worse than the 87.7 forecast.

The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased from 134.4 in March to 133.5 in April. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased from 66.9 in March to 54.4 in April, its lowest level since October 2021. Note that a level of 80 or below for the Expectations Index historically signals a recession within the next year.”

Note that the last time the level was this low was the 2008 Great Recession. This leads us to the next real possibility by July 4^th.

A Recession

By July 4^th, or shortly thereafter America will learn about the GDP for the second quarter. The first quarter GDP showed a .3% contraction, which of course Trump blamed on Biden. IF the second quarter shows a decrease that will then be the traditional measurement of a recession. Two straight quarters of contraction. Biden can’t be blamed by then.

This announcement will trigger loss of a good amount of “Trump’s base” as they will be dealing with all the economic stuff discussed above. It will also be chilling for any MAGA party politicians concerned about reelection.

By July 4^th it will become clear that, due to tariffs, collapsing consumer confidence [meaning the postponement of major purchases] and the rising unemployment that the third quarter [ July/August/September] will be even worse than the second quarter. This will lead to the open discussion of “how bad will this recession be?” or “how long will this recession be?” Death conversations for MAGA politicians.

“Trump is good with the economy” type of thinking will be dead forever.

Collapsing support of Trump by the MAGA party

If you have read this far, then this point is obvious. It will start slowly but through the summer the rate of defections will dramatically increase.

The Summer of 2025 will, in a decade. have amplified elevation as the Summer of 1967, the Summer of 1968 and the Summer of 2020 have now.

Pay attention. Be aware. Act with Integrity. What will you tell your grandchildren about what you did and what you experienced in the “Summer of 2025” when they ask?

[NOTE to Readers: I have been highly accurate on directional forecasts. I am very confident about any of my long-term forecasts - Climate Crisis will only get worse at an increasing rate/EVs will dominate the auto category by 2030/AI will be the most transformative technology since the Internet/ the ultimate downgrading of the nation state globally this century/the recent transformations in healthcare and education are just as some examples. What I am less confident of is the short-term specific forecasts. Several times, some magazine or newspaper editor has come up with the idea that it’s January and we should have a panel of “experts” to tell us about the new year. Hey, let’s get a futurist! So, I have done my share. My forecasts for the new year have been generally correct but not in the details as a single action or individual can within a year time frame have a disproportionate effect. So the actual timing and actual magnitude of all listed above might be off but it will be a hugely historic summer, in the U.S. and the globe.]