The Historical Context that Explains the Democrats’ Losing the Election

Everywhere in the media, there has been a lot of hand-wringing and post-mortems about how the Democrats lost the election. They didn’t explain the inflation, they did not counter the transgender ad that ran 30,000 times, and they lost on the immigration issue.

In the first election since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the majority of women and white women voted for Trump. Latinos broke for Trump, the deportation candidate. The electorate spoke, but not in ways that could be easily explained. Whenever the details of the moment overwhelm us in how we look at a situation, it often is best to take a longer, historical view of the significant dynamics.

The great speechwriter and long-time columnist Peggy Noonan is on a book tour to promote her new book, “A Certain Idea of America”, which I intend to read. I saw her on Morning Joe a week back and was struck by her answer to Joe Scarborough’s question about why the Democrats lost. [When she talks about her life, she is clearly a Boomer.] Here is what she said:

“Going through my life, from the time I was a kid to the time I was a young woman, the Democratic Party was seen as three things it seems to me.

A. it was the party of the little guy; it was the party for those who were not protected in America.

B. It was the party of generous spending and

C. They were the anti-war party

Joe, it seems as though the Democratic Party has seeded that territory to the Republican Party,, the Trumpian party. The Trumpian party says that we are the party of the little guy, we are the party of generous spending, and we are the anti-war party….. The Democratic Party was resting on these three pillars and now they are all gone.so they have to rebuild these pillars or find new ones”.

I must be close in age to Noonan, and her description was my experience with the Democratic Party from the time I was a child through young adulthood. My father was a professor at the University of Chicago, so I grew up in a liberal household. As a child I heard about the great FDR and how he saved America and protected “the little guy” with Social Security and other social programs. I learned that Truman was just a regular guy who grew into greatness. Supporting JFK was of course the only thing to do in the 1960 election. Later the anti-war positions of McCarthy and RFK when the great LBJ stepped down.

This was the time of one of the most powerful Democratic city-machine mayors ever, Mayor Daley, was mayor of Chicago. It was the way it was. Chicago delivered huge voting pluralities that overwhelmed the more conservative Republican downstate voters. I understood the word patronage at a young age. The city – and the Democratic Party – worked on patronage. During my childhood, Chicago – in addition to being known as the “city of big shoulders” was also the “city that worked”, as opposed to NYC and other big cities that had garbage strikes and other indignities. Not Chicago.

The Democratic machine worked hand in hand with unions and with business leaders to make Chicago a growing, vibrant, and livable city. Until the police riots of 1968 brought it all crashing down on live TV. “The whole world is watching”.

The point is that in post-WWII America, the Democratic Party was the party of change, of the little guy, of those who did not have or were not included in the larger society. It had a mission, a heart, and a view of social change. This is what Ms. Noonan and I remember.

The party clearly has lost its way. Identity politics? The coastal elites? Supporting transgender rights as the right thing to do? It lost the brand that was so clear..

The Republican/Trump party is now the place where the disaffected go, those that have a grudge against the ‘deep state’, against the establishment. This leaves the Democratic Party defending the country's institutions an awkward place for Democrats to be.

Perhaps, as a futurist, I am suffering a moment of loss in what was. Yes, I am. It is unclear what the future is for the political landscape of America. The only place it feels like is 1968, and that was a destructive, trajectory-altering year for America. Will 2025 be another year of turmoil and upheaval? Yes, it will. How? I am not sure.