The End of the American Empire?

I became a full-time futurist in 2006. Ever since, I have wondered whether I should view the geopolitical world through a particular lens: the decline and fall of the American Empire.  As a futurist, I am a big student of history and often look back to look forward.

Of course, in technical terminological terms, America is not an empire. We do not have an emperor or empress. We are more in the tradition of the former British Empire, the Spanish Empire, and the Roman Empire—a long list of empires that shaped civilizations through human history

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In the 1990s, there was much speculation about whether America would be eclipsed by China around now.  It hasn’t happened.  Why?  A lot of reasons.  Declining civilizations breed successors.  I have never been clear whether this was the time - that the 2020s would be the transition times  - for the American Empire from an overarching position of power it has today versus ceding that anytime soon.

So, for some 18 years, I have, from time to time, reflected on if

America would give up its world dominance position anytime soon.  I had concluded that the American Empire would continue, for a few more decades at least., until the climate crisis overwhelms in the next 20 years, and the population growth  is over by 2075

All of this came roaring back during these last two weeks of the 2024 Presidential campaign.  No doubt about it.  Vote for Trump and get the end of the American Empire.  Vote for Harris and it is propelled forward.  Simple as that.

The American Empire rose up at the end of WWII. We had defeated the Germans and the Japanese, and then we turned around and helped our defeated adversaries in the world to rebuild.  America funded the rebuilding of cities that had been bombed.  America then led the Bretton Woods discussion to secure the American Dollar and a sound global economic future.  It has been this way for more than 80 years.

Empires are maintained by diplomacy and agreements, by military might and bilateral relationships with many other countries. NATO, the most powerful multi-country organization in history, is a buttress of the American Empire. Harris is solidly for NATO, Trump is not. Harris is for the rule of law and that no one is above the law. Trump is not.

TO do? will missed

My long-term view is that there are two trajectories into the future for the continuance of the American Empire. The first is the one that I think will happen: Harris will win a first and perhaps a second term. We arch from the mid-2020s, and we must think like we are in continuance of the last 75 years. A Harris win will come as great relief that the American Empire will continue. From this moment forward, America and the Empire are strong