Peak Oil / Peak Auto / Peak People
In the last column here I wrote about the definition of these three peaks. Each one is going to happen in the future, and I think all will happen before 2100. Each peak will be the year after which the total number: oil production, cars on the road, and people alive will start to decline.
As mentioned in the last column, all three are loosely related but the first two are very closely aligned; peak oil and peak auto for obvious reasons.
Peak Oil
The theory of peak oil has always been the time when half of all the oil in the earth has been extracted and burned. The variation of that, and what I am using here, is the time or year when the total annual production of oil globally tops out and then the following year it declines from that number.
The dynamics affecting this are several. First is the knowledge that the climate collapse has been largely triggered by GHG emissions, so the continuation of the carbon combustion complex needs to be wound down ASAP to prevent further warming. Second is the rapid increase in clean energy global capacity which has been 90% since the year 2000. Third is the fact that wind, solar and hydro are all now cheaper than coal, oil and gas.
These dynamics are different depending on the country and region of the world. Some countries are closing in on 95-100% clean energy, and there are 40 countries that have clean energy as a majority of electrical power.
Peak Oil is NOT when humanity will be fully off petroleum, but rather is the year that will end up being the last year of oil production increases after which production levels will decline more or less annually through the next several decades.
So, what is my forecast for the year we will experience Peak Oil? Peak Auto and Peak People?
This weekly column about the future is for paid subscribers only. Why not become one by clicking this button below and supporting my writing of this newsletter, getting a free eBook , participating in the monthly virtual book club and being able to comment on all columns?