Memorial Day to July 4th

I hope all subscribers had a great three-day weekend. The weather is always iffy on this weekend that kicks off the summer. July 4^th however, brings summer temperatures and heat.

It is the heat of politics and governing that will kick in by the weekend of July 4. In my last column [before I took some necessary time off for a much-delayed short vacation, thank you for your patience, if you missed my columns], I suggested that the Summer of 2025 would be very disruptive and ‘hot’.

In https://evolutionshift.substack.com/p/the-summer-of-2025 I suggested that by the July 4^th holiday there will be a number of pain points for the American public. In that column, I wrote:

“Tariffs

My recent research is that major retailers have some four to six weeks of inventory now in early May. That means through most of June. By July 4^th I expect to see endless news stories about two things: empty shelves in all kinds of stores and a resultant inflation due to demand far outpacing available supply. When it comes to grocery stores and pharmacies it will get real quite quickly.

The visuals will be stark. Online as well, as most online retailers will be putting the cost of tariffs as part of the product pricing. The reactions will be first disbelief [this is America, land of plenty], then there will be anger. This anger will mostly be directed at Trump and the Trump administration because by July 4^th, Trump won’t be able to blame it on Biden.”

Then, of course, there is Musk and DOGE. As I wrote on May 10:

“Whatever DOGE has done

This is the big unknown as Americans do not know what Musk, his DOGE-boys and his chainsaw have done to such things as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, all major, respected, honored and needed social safety net programs. We see some of the early results when DOGE killed USAID, laid-off people responsible for overseeing our nuclear arsenal, and essentially depopulated the staffs of the U.S. National Parks. Whoops!

All the demographic analysis I have read post-election, suggests that the some 35% of the voting public is “Trump’s base” and that the vast majority of them are not college-educated and have a higher percentage of Medicaid use than the average population. So by the Summer of 2025 there may be a good number of “Trump’s base” as the media likes to call it, who are starting to question their undying loyalty to Trump.

It is not just them. Depending on the month, Social Security is a fair percentage of my income, as it is with many people I know in their late 60’s or 70’s. There are some 72 million people who receive Social Security benefits. As of now, there are some 67 million people on Medicare and 80 million on Medicaid. I assume that there is some duplication in those numbers, so let’s settle on 130 million U.S. citizens partaking of one of these medical programs.”

The massive cuts supposedly made by Musk/DOGE/DOGE boys will necessarily result in something going wrong. Social Security checks might not get mailed, reimbursements in Medicare might not be made. People who relied on Medicaid might well find themselves with no health insurance.

In my last column I addressed what was, at the time, a growing number of demonstrations against Trump:

“Ongoing demonstrations everywhere in the country

The demonstrations that have been occurring since March will continue. They are everywhere, both spontaneous and well-planned, populated by all demographics, and angry. It is the first time, perhaps since the late 60s and 70s that there have been widespread demonstrations that spring up spontaneously: the Power of the People. These will explode if any of the above happens this summer”

Well, there is already a massive national effort to organize demonstrations all across the country on June 14, halfway between now and the July 4th holiday. This date is also Trump’s birthday, so he will be making a big deal of it.

As I also mentioned in the last column, I stand firm on the accuracy of long-term, directional forecasts on the future of humanity. However, closer-in, more specific forecasts are very difficult to make as even one person’s actions or statements can change our futures in some way.

This futurist thinks that between the first and second three-day holiday weekends this summer, the body politic will experience upheaval and disruption.