Incorrect Forecasts About This Summer

In two columns this year, I made some forecasts for this summer. In the column. “The Summer of 2025” I suggested that this would be a historic summer in the U.S. with a list of events and dynamics as to why. In another column, “Memorial Day to July 4^th” I made some time-specific forecasts that did not happen. Specifically:

“Tariffs

My recent research is that major retailers have some four to six weeks of inventory now in early May. That means through most of June. By July 4^th I expect to see endless news stories about two things: empty shelves in all kinds of stores and a resultant inflation due to demand far outpacing available supply. When it comes to grocery stores and pharmacies it will get real quite quickly.

The visuals will be stark. Online as well, as most online retailers will be putting the cost of tariffs as part of the product pricing. The reactions will be first disbelief [this is America, land of plenty], then there will be anger. This anger will mostly be directed at Trump and the Trump administration because by July 4^th, Trump won’t be able to blame it on Biden.”

This did not happen because of the TACO phenomenon .

Trump initially threatened countries with a deadline in April. My early May research in retailer inventories was based on that. Now we have updates on the TACO phenomenon with a new deadline to countries of August. The deadlines keep getting pushed back. Trump had stated in March that there would be “90 trade deals in 90 days”. There haven’t been so the tariff realities have been pushed back until next month.

In my earlier column about the Summer of 2025, I wrote:

“Then, of course, there is Musk and DOGE. As I wrote on May 10:

“Whatever DOGE has done

This is the big unknown as Americans do not know what Musk, his DOGE-boys and his chainsaw have done to such things as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, all major, respected, honored and needed social safety net programs. We see some of the early results when DOGE killed USAID, laid-off people responsible for overseeing our nuclear arsenal, and essentially depopulated the staffs of the U.S. National Parks. Whoops!

All the demographic analysis I have read post-election, suggests that the some 35% of the voting public is “Trump’s base” and that the vast majority of them are not college-educated and have a higher percentage of Medicaid use than the average population. So by the Summer of 2025 there may be a good number of “Trump’s base” as the media likes to call it, who are starting to question their undying loyalty to Trump.

It is not just them. Depending on the month, Social Security is a fair percentage of my income, as it is with many people I know in their late 60’s or 70’s. There are some 72 million people who receive Social Security benefits. As of now, there are some 67 million people on Medicare and 80 million on Medicaid. I assume that there is some duplication in those numbers, so let’s settle on 130 million U.S. citizens partaking of one of these medical programs.”

The massive cuts supposedly made by Musk/DOGE/DOGE boys will necessarily result in something going wrong. Social Security checks might not get mailed, reimbursements in Medicare might not be made. People who relied on Medicaid might well find themselves with no health insurance.”

The above was based on the April deadline for all trade deals per Trump. This forecast might well happen in the fall, IF Trump ever has a firm deadline.

In that column about the Summer of 2025 I also forecast:

“IF Musk and his DOGE-boys took a chainsaw to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, then I just have to think that sometime during the Summer of 2025 there will be missed payments. Think about how people might react to any of these:

-not getting their monthly SS check

-being told that Medicare is backed up and one will have to pay the full amount of healthcare upfront and that she might have to wait for a few months for reimbursement. The other option is that the healthcare providers will have to go without compensation for months, which will trigger economic losses and job loss as well.

-losing health coverage for their family

So this is the big unknown, what Musk and his young DOGE-boys – with Trump’s direction – have done to the most popular programs of the U.S. government. If there are to be failures to deliver with social programs, the summer will be hot.”

These forecasts will not happen in 2025 as the tax bill that the MAGA party just passed intentionally postponed the cutting of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security until December 2026 – after the mid-terms- so that voters will not know before they vote if they have healthcare coverage. So it might be a “hot” Christmas 2026 when voters will learn how much the MAGA party cut benefits.

Updated Forecasts

If Trump ever holds the line on tariffs – August is now the latest “deadline” – there will be empty store shelves by the fourth quarter.

There will be inflation and a recession in 2024. I think that is called stagflation.

To the degree that all the DOGE cuts become known and there is good insight into the reality of the cuts to the safety net that will happen in December 2026, the 2026 mid-terms will be a Democratic landslide of historic proportions.