AI Into the Future - Part One
We are at the threshold, or precipice, of a new Age of Intelligence. I think that there are seven overarching concepts or dynamics of this new Age.
1. It is misnamed. It should be called Technological Intelligence, or TI
2. Humanity has done to TI what it always does; creates an “other”
3. TI has the potential to transform how humanity lives on the planet as much as electricity has
4. Think of the Age of Intelligence as the logical successor to the Industrial Age.
5. We need to oversee the development of TI as a global effort
6. The rest of the 21st Century, Intelligence will be the defining product or development
7. It is part of humanity’s next evolutionary step
Now, to delve into each one.
It is misnamed. It should be called Technological Intelligence or TI.
Back in 2016, when AlphaGo, Google’s AI programed for the GO game against the world champion Go player is when I realized that finally AI would finally be the next big thing after decades of being hyped. As Google said before the match, the theoretical number of moves on a Go board is infinite. During the second game of the match – which AlphaGo won 4-1- AlphaGo made a move that was a turning point in the game. When it made move 37 in the second game, the current global champion, Lee Sedol, had to take a break and leave the competition space. It turned out to be the decisive move in the game. When asked why he had to take a break, Sedol said that the move was creative and intuitive, and he hadn’t expected that from AlphaGo. There are several videos of move 37 and the match here andhere.
Why did Sedol need to take a break, and why was this match the beginning of the launch of the Age of Intelligence? A little history and background:
-May 1997. Deep Blue [the IBM supercomputer} beat the great Grandmaster Garry Kasparov 3.5-2.5 in chess. No grandmaster has ever won since against this computer. This is due simply to the computational power of Deep Blue. Supposedly grandmasters think 30-35 moves ahead in chess. The power of the supercomputer went beyond that with lightning speed.
-February 2011. IBM’s Watson [Deep Blue renamed after the founder of the company] defeated the top two Jeopardy champions over three nights. Think about this feat: the game is played by suggesting the question to the answer on the board. Totally contextual knowledge of the human experience. Again, it was thought that computational power won the match.
-March 2016 Lee Sedol, the world grand master of Go was defeated by AlphaGo, which was a TI that was “creative and intuitive” So, TI went way past simple computational power and speed to a level of human action. To me this was the start of the Age of Intelligence
In April of 2016, realizing what had just happened, I looked up the word “Intelligence” in four different dictionaries. None of them used the word “human” in the definition. Obviously, whales and dolphins are intelligent. People have said their pets are intelligent. So “Intelligence” exists outside human boundaries. Why call it “artificial”?
Ever since 2016, I have thought that the name ‘Artificial Intelligence’ was a bad one as at some subliminal or sublinguistic level the world ‘artificial’ causes negative reactions in humans. I have made this point perhaps 100 times from stages around the world. I ask the audience to raise their hands if they have ever believed that ‘artificial’ is better than ‘real’. Not one person has ever raised their hand.
At the same time that people are hesitant to embrace ‘artificial’ they are readily embracing Technology at increasing rates. TI, and such programs as Chat/GPT the general population loosely considers to be technology. Technological Intelligence I strongly think is a better name that Artificial Intelligence. [Simple truth: TI has real intelligence, not just fake intelligence, fake being a synonym of artificial] We are actually calling TI Fake Intelligence. No wonder there is resistance! Which leads to the next point.
Humanity has done to TI what it always does; creates an “other”
The history of humanity could be described as endless friction and wars between “others”. Other countries, other religions, other races. Humanity creates ‘others’ exceedingly well. It is one of the things we do best.
We have made AI just the latest ‘other’. What are we worried about? That AI will cause a land war in Europe? A war in the Middle East? Massive global wealth inequality? No, humanity does these well. Oh, AI will take away jobs. Just like man-made recessions. Current discussions around tariffs may have more job loss that AI. Humanity does just fine with fear-based thinking.
Again, I have never met a human who thinks ‘artificial’ is better than real. ‘Artificial’ is a threat. Technology less so.
TI has the potential to transform how humanity lives on the planet as much as electricity has
Think back to the ‘discovery’ of electricity. It was first evidenced in a flickering light bulb. That was a profound transformation, bringing day into night, extending the day. This was so profound that those alive simply could not see what electricity would deliver to humanity: telephones, elevators, toasters, ovens, microwave ovens, flatscreen TVs and now, driverless cars. In other words, the first use of electricity was so profound that people simply could not see beyond the bringing of light to darkness.
A parallel with TI to the flickering light bulb would be any person who has interacted with Chat/GPT or any of the other “AI chatbots” coming online. It seems to be a universal experience that anyone who has, is blown away by the experience. That is the flickering light bulb. Or simply a toe in the ocean of what the potential can truly be.
Think about Intelligence. What is dangerous or wrong with Intelligence? There is a saying I have heard often in my life: it is better to be the stupidest person in a room of smart people than the smartest person in a room of stupid people. The opportunities for growth, mental expansion, and simply learning is far greater with the room of smart people.
Why would we not embrace intelligence? It is about time.
The history of humanity is not one of consistent intelligence. War is not intelligent. Poverty is not intelligent. Refusing to face the climate crisis is not intelligent. Maybe, just maybe, TI is the added ingredient for human evolution that is needed right now in the global stage of human evolution.
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As a futurist I have always known that any major new technology always disrupts the existing reality. Gutenberg’s moveable-type press created books, newspapers, literacy and the end to illuminated manuscripts. It also created jobs that could not have been imagined before the invention: newspaper editors, book sellers, advertisers. The Internet of course disrupted the existing reality. Yes, it disintermediated many industries, but it also created jobs that didn’t exist before such as Tech Support, web designers, online stores and thousands of people building data centers, none of which existed before the Internet.
The same thing will happen with TI.
Part Two will address points 4-7